Predictive Modelling Analyst - Band 7
Job summary
Please note the provisional interview dates of 3rd and 5th November 2026.
We are looking for a Predictive Modelling Analyst to join the analytical and population health intelligence function at NHS Essex ICB. This is an opportunity to use advanced statistical analysis to move beyond descriptive reporting and help shape strategic commissioning, population health improvement and service planning across Essex. You will work with colleagues across analytics, population health, evaluation and commissioning, using complex health and care data to forecast demand, understand risk and test future scenarios. Your work will translate evidence into clear, practical insight that supports better decisions, more effective use of resources and improved outcomes for local communities.
Main duties of the job
You will develop and apply predictive, regression, forecasting, risk-stratification and scenario models to answer complex questions about population need, service demand, outcomes and resource use. You will analyse large health and care datasets using statistical and analytical tools such as R, SQL and Power BI, with Python or Stata advantageous; select methods appropriate to the question; test and document assumptions; assess model performance and limitations; and present findings clearly to technical and non-technical audiences. You should have strong quantitative and problem-solving skills, experience of advanced analytics using NHS or comparable healthcare data, and the ability to turn complex analysis into robust recommendations. You will work collaboratively across organisational boundaries, manage your own projects and priorities, and maintain high standards of information governance, reproducibility and analytical quality.
About us
NHS Essex ICB is a statutory organisation responsible for the planning and funding of NHS services for around 1.9 million people across Essex. Our role as an ICB is to bring health and care services together, improve the health and wellbeing of our population and ensure equitable access to services and outcome for everyone. The organisations headquarters is Seax House, Chelmsford, and we operate a hybrid working model (2 office-based days) that includes working across Essex and from home. Essex ICB currently has offices in Brentwood, Harlow and Colchester, in addition to the Chelmsford HQ.
We are committed to creating an inclusive workplace that values diversity. We know that different experiences, ideas and perspectives help create a stronger and more innovative organisation that delivers better outcomes for patients. We welcome applications from all backgrounds, including people of all ages, disabilities, sex, gender identity or expression, race or ethnicity, religion or belief, sexual orientation or personal circumstances. Our policies ensure all applicants are treated fairly and consistently throughout the recruitment process, including consideration of reasonable adjustments for disabled applicants.
Please note that the organisation does not hold a sponsorship licence.
Job description
Job responsibilities
ROLE PURPOSE / SUMMARY
The Essex Integrated Care Board (ICB) is a new organisation formed through the consolidation of three ICB areas in response to the NHSs ambition to deliver a more streamlined, strategic and cost-effective model of health commissioning. The ICB will oversee the commissioning of care for the approximately 2 million people who live in Essex. Operating within a reduced running cost envelope and aligned to the new requirements of ICBs in England, the ICB will focus on improving population health outcomes, health equity and smarter resource allocation.
The Predictive Modelling Analyst will be responsible for delivering advanced predictive modelling and statistical analysis to support strategic commissioning, population health insight and service planning across the ICB. . The postholder will apply quantitative and statistical methods to support forecasting, risk stratification, and analytical insight, working closely with population health, evaluation, and commissioning colleagues to inform decision making.
The Predictive Modelling Analyst will be required to:
- Develop and apply predictive and statistical models to support forecasting, risk stratification, service planning, and commissioning decision-making.
- Use statistical and analytical programming tools (e.g. R, Python) to analyse large, complex health and care datasets.
- Apply appropriate quantitative methods to generate robust analytical insight, ensuring assumptions and limitations are clearly documented and communicated.
- Work closely with population health, evaluation, and commissioning colleagues to ensure modelling outputs are appropriately interpreted and applied.
- Provide quantitative analytical input to support wider analytical, population health, and evaluation work, where required.
- Produce clear, high-quality analytical outputs, including reports, visualisations, and briefings, tailored to a range of audiences.
- Support compliance with information governance, data protection, and data sharing requirements.
- Make effective use of ICB data platforms and analytical environments in line with agreed standards and guidance.
- Prioritise and manage own workload to deliver agreed outputs to time and quality.
- Contribute to a collaborative analytical and population health intelligence team, sharing knowledge and supporting continuous improvement in analytical practice.
As the ICB transitions to become a leaner, more focused strategic commissioning organisation the post holder will be expected to support the ICB in delivering on the three fundamental shifts set out in the NHS 10-year plan:
- From Treatment to Prevention: Embedding preventative, personalised and population based approaches to commissioning.
- From Hospital to Community: Championing care model redesign that supports community and neighbourhood health.
- From Analogue to Digital: Enabling clinically driven transformation through digital innovation, data analytics and evidence based improvement.
KEY DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES
To deliver on the job description set out above, the job holder will be expected to deliver on the requirements set out below:
Policy and service development
- Implement policy and / or service developments related to analytics, business intelligence and insight generation, drawing on requirements from NHS strategies, including the ICB strategy and the 10 Year Health Plan
- Ensure compliance with relevant ICB policies
- Use research, innovation and audits to inform service improvements or performance management
Strategy and analysis
- Analysis of complex qualitative and quantitative data
- Turns analysis into useful insights and reports that can be used to inform decision making and delivery
- Present complex data, information and insights, including qualitative and quantitative data, through clear and simple written and verbal briefings
- Use of data and insight to contribute to reporting, including performance management, financial and quality reporting against agreed contractual or project deliverables
- Use of Population Health Management methodologies and tools to inform projects and programmes that will improve outcomes for patients and sustainability of health services
Planning and organisation
- Develop and deliver project plans to support analytical and business intelligence projects, ensuring appropriate governance, risk management, escalations and reporting
- Managing competing priorities, prioritizing own and team resources to effectively deliver on short, medium and longer term priorities
- Ensure accurate reporting and records management
- Support delivery and monitoring of business plan for the analytical and population health intelligence unit
Communications and Partnerships
- Work collaboratively, modelling inclusive, respectful and compassionate leadership
- Able to take account of a broad range of perspectives, including staff, patients and the public, to inform decision making
- Comfortable presenting information and training to internal and external stakeholder groups
- Build strong, trust-based relationships across the ICB, with NHS providers, local government, VCFSE partners and communities as needed
- Effective engagement with patients and the public as required
- Work effectively in multi-disciplinary teams to enable the collective ownership and delivery of projects that are seeking to improve outcomes, reduce inequalities and deliver a sustainable health and care system
- Share complex and challenging information which may relate to service performance or staffing
- Able to manage conflict, find compromise and persuade based on evidence as needed
Financial and resource management
- Supports delivery of budget for the analytical and population health intelligence unit, including effective budget reporting as required
- Supports procurement of relevant services
Team management and capability building
- Support effective people management within the analytical and population health intelligence unit, including supporting recruitment, onboarding, development and performance management of team members
- Able to influence in order to deliver effectively through those not directly line managing
- Support staff through ICB transition, including the development of teams to deliver on new ICB portfolios as agreed through transition
- Support the effective transition of relevant functions to new portfolios within or beyond the ICB to support the new NHS operating model, in line with the requirements of the Model ICB Blueprint
- Work collaboratively with system partners to facilitate transitional arrangements
- Maintain a focus on quality, safety and affordability during transition
- Supporting effective Information Asset Management for the team
Other
- Use initiative and work independently as needed to deliver on requirements of the role
- Primarily desk-based work that requires use of visual display units, focused concentration and frequent participation in on-line or in person meetings
- Able to use software required to develop report, including ability to deliver high quality documents through Microsoft suite (word, power point, excel), project management software (e.g. Aspyre), analytical and statistical software (e.g. SQL, Azure, PowerBI)
Flexibility and evolving responsibilities
As the ICB continues to evolve, portfolios may be subject to change to reflect the needs of the organization, the health and care system and national policy direction. This may include adjustments to areas of responsibility or realignment of reporting structures.
KEY RELATIONSHIPS
The post holder will need to build constructive relationships with partners from across the health and care system. Key relationships will be with:
- ICB senior leadership
- Information Governance team
- Local Authority partners
- NHS Providers
- NHSEI regional partners
- Other system partners, such as VCFSE
- Data, BI and analytical teams in system partners, including NHS providers and local authorities
Person Specification
Strategy & Analysis
- Experience using analytical and problem-solving skills to address complex problems, recognise policy implications and manage potential competing priorities or interests in developing strategies.
- Good data analysis and interpretation skills involving highly complex data, including an understanding of analytical methods and how to use data to support Population Health Management.
- Able to translate complex information into clear communications for a range of audiences, including effective reports to senior leadership.
Experience
- Previous experience of working in a relevant healthcare environment (NHS or other).
- Experienced in NHS data flows and using that data to deliver advanced analytics, business intelligence and reporting in the NHS in England.
- Skilled in the use of advanced statistical techniques and the Microsoft data and analytics stack, including working knowledge of SQL, R and Power BI.
People & Culture
- Line management experience, including supporting individual development and addressing under-performance when necessary.
- Acts as a positive, compassionate and inclusive manager, demonstrating commitment to promoting diversity, inclusion and equality of opportunity.
- A commitment to continuous improvement, organisational learning and achieving positive outcomes for all staff, patients, service users and carers, working in line with the NHS People Promise.
Personal Attributes and Values
- Personal commitment to the values of the NHS 10-year Plan, the NHS People Plan and the Nolan Principles, and to championing equality, diversity and inclusion within the ICB and wider health system.
- Takes personal responsibility and works with a high level of integrity.
- Excellent interpersonal and communication skills.
- Able to work as part of a team and independently.
- Able to adapt to different situations, influence others and build credibility effectively.
Partnerships & Communities
- Experience working across organisational boundaries in the development and delivery of projects.
- Able to represent the organisation credibly and positively.
- Able to influence and challenge effectively within areas of responsibility, escalating appropriately where necessary.
Governance & Assurance
- Experience delivering projects that require collective decision-making and negotiating successfully in those situations.
- A good understanding of effective corporate governance and the route for decision-making within the ICB.
Qualifications
- Educated to Degree level (relevant focus) or equivalent managerial experience
- Evidence of sustained commitment to continuing professional development
Employer details
Employer name
NHS Essex Integrated Care Board
Address
Seax House
Victoria Road South
Chelmsford
Essex
CM1 1QH
United Kingdom
Employer's website
https://www.essex.icb.nhs.uk